The Gorman Health Group 2016 Forum concluded last week with over 200 of our closest clients and partners. There was great news and rough news, so here are a few takeaways:
- The playing field of government programs continues to expand rapidly, with improving revenue outlook across the board:
- We’re sticking by our projections of over 29 million Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollees by 2023, driven by more positive rate trends and a plan-friendly baby boomer tsunami underway.
- Six to eight more states expand Medicaid — once President Obama leaves office.
- Significant enrollment gains for dual eligibles as home and community-based services (HCBS) waivers and managed long-term services and supports (MLTSS) initiatives become the new normal. We expect dual eligible special needs plan (D-SNP) enrollment to double and exceed 4 million by 2019.
- Rising ObamaCare enrollment, albeit slowing and below projections, as more difficult-to-reach populations remain outside coverage.
- During the Forum, United announced its departures from most ObamaCare Marketplaces. We characterized the news as a nothingburger in terms of enrollment or market impact but huge symbolically and politically. We expect another two to three messy years sorting out the pricing and finances of the Marketplace business, with membership reconciliation and cleanup of membership discrepancies front of mind for issuers.
- Risk Adjustment Data Validation (RADV) audits will begin to be conducted in MA — 2016-2018 will be the first time we see plans prosecuted under the False Claims Act and hundreds of millions clawed back by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) for unsubstantiated codes submitted for higher payments.
- Clinical and pharmacy data integration and strong provider partnerships around person-centered care were clear priorities in medical management, Star Ratings improvement, and Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) oversight.
- The Star Ratings system of performance-based payment drives the payer and provider markets. This year will be the first year where plans below 3 stars are terminated. It’s also when another 180+ MA plans will be scored for the first time, diluting ratings for existing plans, especially those at 4+ stars and denying many their bonuses and rebates in what promises to be an ugly “October Surprise.”
- The turbulent Presidential elections will likely be won by Hillary Clinton, promising continued gridlock with a likely weakened and more polarized Congress. This means CMS will increasingly fight out policy changes “below the waterline” in subregulatory guidance and enforcement, where politicians are less likely to intervene. That means more surprises for plans not paying attention.
- Appeals and grievances and pharmacy benefit management vendor performance remain the #1, 2, and 3 regulatory infractions in MA and integration of long-term care and supports and services the leading challenge facing Medicaid health plans.
- CMS is on pace for its most aggressive enforcement year ever, with over a dozen actions taken against plans this year already.
As we’ve said since the passage of the Affordable Care Act, we are now in the Golden Age of government-sponsored health programs, and the opportunities and challenges that come with this shift have never been greater. Our clients went home with a clear grasp of both, and we are thrilled so many joined us this year.
Our distinguished team of experts collaborated to provide our interpretation of this announcement and the key features that will have the greatest impact on the industry, emphasizing core business functions in Risk Adjustment, Provider Network, Quality, Compliance, Pharmacy, and Data Integrity. Download our full Summary & Analysis of the Final Rate Announcement & Final Call Letter >>
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